The housing market has been sending mixed signals all year, but one trend keeps showing up loud and clear: the top of the market is on fire.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, sales of homes priced at $1 million or more jumped 15% year over year in July, following an even stronger 18% increase in June. That's two consecutive months of accelerating luxury activity — even as the overall market cooled slightly and mortgage rates stayed above 6.5%.

For those of us working in the Hill Country luxury real estate market, where ranches, waterfront estates, and high-end properties make up a meaningful share of sales, this is a trend worth paying close attention to.

The Numbers Behind the Surge

NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, pointed to wealth concentration at the top of the market — driven by stock market gains and rising home equity — as the engine behind the surge. A few highlights from the latest reports:

• Existing-home sales overall are up 2.4% year-to-date
• Homes priced above $1 million are seeing double-digit annual growth two months running
• The national median home price hit a record $440,600 in June

Meanwhile, data from Redfin shows the luxury segment pulling further ahead on price, too. The median luxury sale price rose 4.7% year over year to $1.37 million, compared to just 1.5% growth for non-luxury homes. Pending luxury sales are also outpacing the broader market, up 5.2% compared to 3.6% for non-luxury listings.

Luxury Is a Local Story, Too

Nationally, some markets are seeing especially strong luxury momentum — Tampa and Miami both posted double-digit luxury price growth, and San Francisco saw pending luxury sales jump nearly 46%. What stands out is that luxury and non-luxury markets aren't just moving at different speeds right now — in several cities, they're moving in completely different directions.

We've seen a version of this story play out here at home. As we covered in Wall Street to Y'all Street, affluent buyers from California, New York, and other high-cost states have been steadily relocating to Texas, drawn by no state income tax, agricultural exemptions, and the kind of space and privacy you simply can't find in a dense metro. That migration lines up directly with what these national numbers are showing.

If you own a waterfront estate, a live-water ranch, or another luxury Hill Country property, you're not just competing for local buyers anymore. You're marketing to a nationwide pool of relocating, cash-strong buyers who are actively looking for:

• Live-water ranches and waterfront acreage
• Land with development or ag-exemption potential
• Luxury homes in growth corridors like Blanco, Burnet, and Gillespie County

A Word on Timing

Strong demand at the top doesn't mean every luxury listing sells overnight. The median luxury home spent 49 days on market through May — five days longer than the year before. Buyers at this price point tend to be less rate-sensitive, but they're also more selective. Pricing, presentation, and positioning still matter enormously, even in a hot segment — which is exactly why an accurate, current valuation matters more than ever if you're weighing a sale. If you're curious where your property fits into this market, find out what your home is worth.

Final Thought: The Top of the Market Is Telling Us Something

Two straight months of double-digit growth in million-dollar sales isn't a blip — it's a signal. Wealth is concentrating, buyers with equity and cash are moving decisively, and the Hill Country luxury real estate market is exactly where they're moving toward.

If you're considering listing a luxury, ranch, or waterfront property, now is a smart time to talk through your options. And if you're a buyer watching this segment heat up, getting ahead of the competition matters more than ever.

I'd love to help you figure out where you fit into this market — reach out anytime!

Source: National Association of REALTORS®, Redfin Luxury Housing Report, The Close, Inman